Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | UNLV -125 NEV +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +3 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -1.6 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (-7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -0.9 (-2.1) | 138.7 (-3.7) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -0.6 (-2.4) | 140.8 (-5.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -0.2 (-2.8) | 141.0 (-6.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -2.0 (-1.0) | 140.3 (-5.3) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNLV 85 – 83 NEV |
| Jan 31, 2026 | NEV 89 – 76 UNLV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNLV 68 – 55 NEV |
| Feb 2, 2025 | NEV 71 – 65 UNLV |
| Mar 10, 2024 | NEV 75 – 65 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-4 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#94) | 10.9 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#84) | 2.18 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#98) | 2.64 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#62) | 0.579 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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