Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | UNLV +120 NEV -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +13 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -0.9 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -1.5 (+11.5) | 134.9 (-11.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -0.7 (+12.3) | 132.5 (-9.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -1.5 (+11.5) | 133.3 (-10.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -1.5 (+11.5) | 134.3 (-11.3) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNLV 85 – 83 NEV |
| Jan 31, 2026 | NEV 89 – 76 UNLV |
| Feb 2, 2025 | NEV 71 – 65 UNLV |
| Mar 10, 2024 | NEV 75 – 65 UNLV |
| Feb 18, 2024 | NEV 69 – 66 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-5 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#101) | 8.6 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#105) | 0.91 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#91) | 1.42 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#115) | 0.529 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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