Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | NEV -230 UNLV +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +6 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -6.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -5.4 (+0.6) | 135.4 (+0.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -6.5 (-0.5) | 134.6 (+1.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -5.2 (+0.8) | 135.3 (+0.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -5.0 (+1.0) | 135.1 (+0.9) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNLV 85 – 83 NEV |
| Jan 31, 2026 | NEV 89 – 76 UNLV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNLV 68 – 55 NEV |
| Mar 10, 2024 | NEV 75 – 65 UNLV |
| Feb 18, 2024 | NEV 69 – 66 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#79) | 4.3 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#104) | 0.97 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#85) | 1.43 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#139) | 0.531 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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