Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | BRAD -185 MUR +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +9 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -1.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -1.5 (+7.5) | 160.5 (+4.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -2.3 (+6.7) | 160.1 (+4.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -2.6 (+6.4) | 158.2 (+6.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -2.4 (+6.6) | 160.0 (+5.0) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | MUR 86 – 66 BRAD |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRAD 70 – 62 MUR |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BRAD 85 – 83 MUR |
| Jan 18, 2025 | BRAD 74 – 61 MUR |
| Jan 25, 2024 | BRAD 71 – 63 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#117) | 4.6 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#121) | 0.74 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#127) | 0.74 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#109) | 0.544 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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