Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | BRAD -215 MUR +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +8 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -5.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -3.9 (+4.1) | 138.2 (-6.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -4.8 (+3.2) | 136.8 (-4.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -4.8 (+3.2) | 138.7 (-6.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -4.9 (+3.1) | 139.7 (-7.7) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | BRAD 87 – 78 MUR |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MUR 86 – 66 BRAD |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BRAD 85 – 83 MUR |
| Jan 18, 2025 | BRAD 74 – 61 MUR |
| Jan 25, 2024 | BRAD 71 – 63 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 9-3 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#90) | 1.0 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#60) | 0.24 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#82) | 0.25 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#61) | 0.510 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.