Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | BRAD -300 MUR +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +2 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -8.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (+27.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -8.0 (-6.0) | 137.9 (+30.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -8.3 (-6.3) | 137.4 (+30.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -8.0 (-6.0) | 138.8 (+29.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -7.9 (-5.9) | 139.3 (+28.7) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | BRAD 87 – 78 MUR |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MUR 86 – 66 BRAD |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRAD 70 – 62 MUR |
| Jan 18, 2025 | BRAD 74 – 61 MUR |
| Jan 25, 2024 | BRAD 71 – 63 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 9-3 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#90) | 0.5 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#67) | 0.22 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#85) | 0.20 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#73) | 0.509 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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