Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -120 BRAD +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +13 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | BRAD -1.2 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -1.0 (-12.0) | 142.1 (-7.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -1.7 (-11.3) | 140.7 (-5.7) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -1.8 (-11.2) | 141.7 (-6.7) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -1.5 (-11.5) | 142.4 (-7.4) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | BRAD 87 – 78 MUR |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MUR 86 – 66 BRAD |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRAD 70 – 62 MUR |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BRAD 85 – 83 MUR |
| Jan 25, 2024 | BRAD 71 – 63 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 15-5 |
| Home | 8-5 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#120) | 7.4 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#134) | 1.83 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#122) | 1.75 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#129) | 0.581 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 41.4% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 57.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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