Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | BRAD -400 MUR +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +8 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -11.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -10.3 (-2.3) | 139.6 (-5.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -10.6 (-2.6) | 137.7 (-3.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -11.1 (-3.1) | 141.3 (-7.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -10.4 (-2.4) | 140.4 (-6.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | BRAD 87 – 78 MUR |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MUR 86 – 66 BRAD |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRAD 70 – 62 MUR |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BRAD 85 – 83 MUR |
| Jan 18, 2025 | BRAD 74 – 61 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-8 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#64) | 1.2 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#75) | -0.45 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#82) | -0.11 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#35) | 0.482 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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