Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -245 BRAD +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +20 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -8.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.6 (-13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -8.1 (+11.9) | 158.9 (-6.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -8.2 (+11.8) | 155.0 (-3.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -7.4 (+12.6) | 155.5 (-3.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -7.7 (+12.3) | 157.8 (-5.8) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | BRAD 87 – 78 MUR |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRAD 70 – 62 MUR |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BRAD 85 – 83 MUR |
| Jan 18, 2025 | BRAD 74 – 61 MUR |
| Jan 25, 2024 | BRAD 71 – 63 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#73) | 3.4 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#68) | 0.63 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#75) | 0.71 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#85) | 0.522 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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