Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | CSUF +145 HAW -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +2 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | HAW -4.1 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -3.2 (+1.2) | 153.7 (+18.3) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -1.9 (-0.1) | 151.4 (+20.6) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -1.9 (-0.1) | 152.0 (+20.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -2.0 (-0.0) | 154.0 (+18.0) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | HAW 78 – 63 CSUF |
| Dec 7, 2025 | HAW 69 – 59 CSUF |
| Feb 2, 2025 | HAW 82 – 57 CSUF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HAW 95 – 86 CSUF |
| Feb 2, 2024 | HAW 76 – 68 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 16-3 |
| Away | 6-10 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#205) | 4.7 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#171) | 0.76 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#170) | 0.71 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#166) | 0.519 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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