Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | HAW -230 CSUF +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +15 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -5.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (-15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -3.1 (+11.9) | 153.9 (-12.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -4.0 (+11.0) | 153.2 (-12.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -3.5 (+11.5) | 149.6 (-8.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -3.6 (+11.4) | 150.1 (-9.1) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | HAW 87 – 85 CSUF |
| Dec 7, 2025 | HAW 69 – 59 CSUF |
| Feb 2, 2025 | HAW 82 – 57 CSUF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HAW 95 – 86 CSUF |
| Feb 2, 2024 | HAW 76 – 68 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 16-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 82.2 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#106) | -1.1 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#107) | 0.14 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#121) | 0.21 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#140) | 0.513 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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