Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | HAW -800 CSUF +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +25 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -11.8 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -10.3 (+14.7) | 139.3 (-0.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -9.7 (+15.3) | 137.5 (+1.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -9.9 (+15.1) | 140.7 (-1.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -9.2 (+15.8) | 141.8 (-2.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | HAW 78 – 63 CSUF |
| Mar 1, 2026 | HAW 87 – 85 CSUF |
| Dec 7, 2025 | HAW 69 – 59 CSUF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HAW 95 – 86 CSUF |
| Feb 2, 2024 | HAW 76 – 68 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 1-19 |
| Home | 13-7 | 4-11 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 62.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#183) | -9.8 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.00 (#175) | -1.63 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#178) | -2.08 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#207) | 0.435 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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