Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | CSUF -135 HAW +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +8 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | CSUF -1.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.4 (+16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -0.6 (-8.6) | 131.0 (+13.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -0.5 (-8.5) | 131.4 (+12.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -1.1 (-9.1) | 130.0 (+14.0) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -1.2 (-9.2) | 129.9 (+14.1) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | HAW 78 – 63 CSUF |
| Mar 1, 2026 | HAW 87 – 85 CSUF |
| Dec 7, 2025 | HAW 69 – 59 CSUF |
| Feb 2, 2025 | HAW 82 – 57 CSUF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HAW 95 – 86 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 11-9 |
| Home | 7-7 | 13-6 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#231) | -1.4 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#159) | -0.42 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#176) | -0.46 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#150) | 0.459 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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