Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +10 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -15.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.7 (-36.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -12.8 (-2.8) | 153.7 (-25.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -13.4 (-3.4) | 157.2 (-29.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -13.6 (-3.6) | 154.3 (-26.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -13.1 (-3.1) | 152.1 (-24.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | HAW 78 – 63 CSUF |
| Mar 1, 2026 | HAW 87 – 85 CSUF |
| Feb 2, 2025 | HAW 82 – 57 CSUF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HAW 95 – 86 CSUF |
| Feb 2, 2024 | HAW 76 – 68 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 16-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 82.2 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#97) | -4.4 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#159) | -0.86 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#133) | -0.84 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#193) | 0.451 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 38.4% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 34.7% |
Game Analysis
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