Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | CSUF +400 HAW -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +9 | 181 | Lost |
| Massey | HAW -6.9 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (+50.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -7.3 (-1.7) | 133.2 (+47.8) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -7.8 (-1.2) | 131.5 (+49.5) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -7.5 (-1.5) | 133.1 (+47.9) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -7.1 (-1.9) | 134.1 (+46.9) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | HAW 78 – 63 CSUF |
| Mar 1, 2026 | HAW 87 – 85 CSUF |
| Dec 7, 2025 | HAW 69 – 59 CSUF |
| Feb 2, 2025 | HAW 82 – 57 CSUF |
| Feb 2, 2024 | HAW 76 – 68 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 7-13 |
| Home | 4-11 | 13-7 |
| Away | 2-15 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L12 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.3 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -10.9 (#330) | -0.0 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#308) | 0.18 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.38 (#314) | 0.22 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#306) | 0.484 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.56 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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