Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR -192 MSM +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +22 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -6.7 (-28.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-30.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -4.9 (-26.9) | 138.2 (-22.2) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -4.4 (-26.4) | 137.9 (-21.9) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -6.1 (-28.1) | 137.6 (-21.6) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -4.9 (-26.9) | 139.2 (-23.2) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | FAIR 69 – 62 MSM |
| Dec 8, 2024 | MSM 101 – 94 FAIR |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FAIR 96 – 92 MSM |
| Feb 18, 2024 | FAIR 94 – 80 MSM |
| Feb 12, 2023 | FAIR 76 – 72 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#247) | -8.7 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#195) | -1.02 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#219) | -1.45 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#153) | 0.466 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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