Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR -188 MSM +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -6.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.6 (+25.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -4.1 (-0.1) | 128.6 (+19.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -4.9 (-0.9) | 129.7 (+18.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -4.3 (-0.3) | 128.3 (+19.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -4.2 (-0.2) | 128.0 (+20.0) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MSM 69 – 47 FAIR |
| Mar 1, 2025 | FAIR 69 – 62 MSM |
| Dec 8, 2024 | MSM 101 – 94 FAIR |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FAIR 96 – 92 MSM |
| Feb 18, 2024 | FAIR 94 – 80 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-6 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 63.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#234) | -6.5 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#263) | -1.66 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#260) | -1.98 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#246) | 0.428 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.3% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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