Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR +105 MSM -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +7 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -2.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -2.2 (+9.2) | 138.1 (-7.1) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -1.3 (+8.3) | 135.7 (-4.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -2.3 (+9.3) | 137.2 (-6.2) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -2.4 (+9.4) | 139.1 (-8.1) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MSM 69 – 47 FAIR |
| Dec 8, 2024 | MSM 101 – 94 FAIR |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FAIR 96 – 92 MSM |
| Feb 18, 2024 | FAIR 94 – 80 MSM |
| Feb 12, 2023 | FAIR 76 – 72 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -11.6 (#337) | -5.7 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#291) | -0.19 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.08 (#314) | -0.60 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#283) | 0.515 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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