Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | OSU +235 PUR -290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OSU +8 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -5.1 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -3.3 (+11.3) | 149.2 (+6.8) | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -2.7 (+10.7) | 145.3 (+10.7) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -1.9 (+9.9) | 148.9 (+7.1) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -2.4 (+10.4) | 149.5 (+6.5) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2025 | OSU 73 – 70 PUR |
| Feb 18, 2024 | OSU 73 – 69 PUR |
| Mar 11, 2023 | PUR 80 – 66 OSU |
| Feb 19, 2023 | PUR 82 – 55 OSU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | PUR 71 – 69 OSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 30-9 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 14.3 (#40) | 22.3 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#44) | 3.51 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.89 (#41) | 4.55 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#61) | 0.631 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 50.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 2.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 57.9% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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