Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -1000 OSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +27 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -9.2 (+17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -10.3 (+16.7) | 138.9 (-1.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -10.5 (+16.5) | 139.5 (-2.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -9.6 (+17.4) | 140.4 (-3.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -9.6 (+17.4) | 140.1 (-3.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | OSU 82 – 74 PUR |
| Jan 22, 2025 | OSU 73 – 70 PUR |
| Feb 18, 2024 | OSU 73 – 69 PUR |
| Mar 11, 2023 | PUR 80 – 66 OSU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | PUR 71 – 69 OSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 5-15 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 7-3 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 16.0 (#10) | 10.3 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#4) | 0.68 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.08 (#2) | 1.25 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#5) | 0.503 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.2% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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