Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | OSU +250 PUR -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OSU +4 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -10.2 (+14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -7.9 (+11.9) | 146.7 (-4.7) | 28% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -6.8 (+10.8) | 145.0 (-3.0) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -7.6 (+11.6) | 147.0 (-5.0) | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -7.8 (+11.8) | 147.1 (-5.1) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | OSU 82 – 74 PUR |
| Jan 22, 2025 | OSU 73 – 70 PUR |
| Mar 11, 2023 | PUR 80 – 66 OSU |
| Feb 19, 2023 | PUR 82 – 55 OSU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | PUR 71 – 69 OSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 34-5 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 17-3 |
| Home | 15-5 | 16-0 |
| Away | 2-8 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 11-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#64) | 22.4 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#95) | 4.06 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#82) | 4.78 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#114) | 0.696 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 40.3% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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