Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +14 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -5.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -4.0 (+10.0) | 133.6 (+12.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -5.2 (+8.8) | 132.9 (+13.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -4.9 (+9.1) | 137.2 (+8.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -5.2 (+8.8) | 134.0 (+12.0) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | OSU 82 – 74 PUR |
| Jan 22, 2025 | OSU 73 – 70 PUR |
| Feb 18, 2024 | OSU 73 – 69 PUR |
| Feb 19, 2023 | PUR 82 – 55 OSU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | PUR 71 – 69 OSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 5-15 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 7-3 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#10) | 10.7 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#4) | 1.20 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.00 (#5) | 1.85 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#5) | 0.515 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.6% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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