Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | USU -500 GCU +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +5 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | USU -10.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -10.4 (-5.4) | 146.3 (-3.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -10.0 (-5.0) | 145.8 (-2.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -9.9 (-4.9) | 147.1 (-4.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -10.7 (-5.7) | 149.3 (-6.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | GCU 84 – 74 USU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 16.2 (#27) | 8.6 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#32) | 1.32 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#40) | 1.80 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#20) | 0.535 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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