Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | FRES +260 BOIS -325 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BOIS +16 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | BOIS -3.8 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (-25.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BOIS -2.6 (-13.4) | 148.9 (-26.9) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BOIS -4.6 (-11.4) | 145.4 (-23.4) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -3.0 (-13.0) | 146.1 (-24.1) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BOIS -2.6 (-13.4) | 147.4 (-25.4) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2025 | BOIS 66 – 61 FRES |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BOIS 82 – 60 FRES |
| Feb 18, 2024 | BOIS 90 – 66 FRES |
| Jan 24, 2024 | BOIS 72 – 68 FRES |
| Jan 25, 2023 | BOIS 63 – 53 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-7 | 12-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#125) | 9.6 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#165) | 1.57 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#149) | 1.79 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#219) | 0.580 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 33.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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