Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | BOIS -7500 FRES +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BOIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BOIS +22 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | BOIS -20.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (-12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BOIS -18.2 (+3.8) | 150.2 (-8.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BOIS -20.1 (+1.9) | 151.2 (-9.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -16.7 (+5.3) | 149.4 (-7.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BOIS -18.4 (+3.6) | 148.8 (-6.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | BOIS 69 – 53 FRES |
| Mar 2, 2025 | BOIS 66 – 61 FRES |
| Feb 18, 2024 | BOIS 90 – 66 FRES |
| Jan 24, 2024 | BOIS 72 – 68 FRES |
| Jan 25, 2023 | BOIS 63 – 53 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BOIS | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 2-18 |
| Home | 13-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 6-5 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 80.7 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#52) | -6.3 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#66) | -1.47 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#68) | -1.79 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#56) | 0.421 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BOIS | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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