Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | FRES +1200 BOIS -3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BOIS +5 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | BOIS -15.3 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (-24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BOIS -14.4 (+9.4) | 144.1 (-17.1) | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BOIS -14.2 (+9.2) | 144.5 (-17.5) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -14.5 (+9.5) | 145.1 (-18.1) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BOIS -15.5 (+10.5) | 146.0 (-19.0) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | BOIS 69 – 53 FRES |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BOIS 82 – 60 FRES |
| Feb 18, 2024 | BOIS 90 – 66 FRES |
| Jan 24, 2024 | BOIS 72 – 68 FRES |
| Jan 25, 2023 | BOIS 63 – 53 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 14-6 |
| Home | 5-9 | 13-3 |
| Away | 1-14 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#267) | 12.3 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#331) | 1.99 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.21 (#322) | 2.56 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#345) | 0.577 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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