Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | BOIS -2500 FRES +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BOIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BOIS +24 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | BOIS -15.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (+16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BOIS -14.6 (+9.4) | 137.9 (+18.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -12.9 (+11.1) | 140.3 (+15.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BOIS -13.0 (+11.0) | 141.2 (+14.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BOIS -13.9 (+10.1) | 138.8 (+17.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | BOIS 69 – 53 FRES |
| Mar 2, 2025 | BOIS 66 – 61 FRES |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BOIS 82 – 60 FRES |
| Jan 24, 2024 | BOIS 72 – 68 FRES |
| Jan 25, 2023 | BOIS 63 – 53 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BOIS | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-9 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#53) | -2.1 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#40) | -0.19 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#48) | -0.15 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#33) | 0.492 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BOIS | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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