Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | BOIS -800 FRES +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BOIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BOIS +10 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | BOIS -15.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BOIS -13.7 (-3.7) | 130.6 (-14.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BOIS -12.2 (-2.2) | 128.7 (-12.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -14.3 (-4.3) | 133.7 (-17.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BOIS -14.0 (-4.0) | 132.2 (-16.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | BOIS 69 – 53 FRES |
| Mar 2, 2025 | BOIS 66 – 61 FRES |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BOIS 82 – 60 FRES |
| Feb 18, 2024 | BOIS 90 – 66 FRES |
| Jan 24, 2024 | BOIS 72 – 68 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BOIS | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-1 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#23) | 0.5 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#35) | -0.25 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#26) | -0.00 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#26) | 0.487 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BOIS | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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