Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | FRES +188 BOIS -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BOIS +4 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | BOIS -10.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BOIS -10.7 (+6.7) | 134.9 (+5.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BOIS -10.0 (+6.0) | 133.4 (+6.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -9.7 (+5.7) | 135.5 (+4.5) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BOIS -10.8 (+6.8) | 134.7 (+5.3) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | BOIS 69 – 53 FRES |
| Mar 2, 2025 | BOIS 66 – 61 FRES |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BOIS 82 – 60 FRES |
| Feb 18, 2024 | BOIS 90 – 66 FRES |
| Jan 25, 2023 | BOIS 63 – 53 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-9 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#245) | 9.6 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#222) | 1.88 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#223) | 2.18 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#214) | 0.606 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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