Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -650 MISS +470 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +6 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -10.7 (-16.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -12.7 (-18.7) | 153.1 (+10.9) | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -11.4 (-17.4) | 153.9 (+10.1) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -11.6 (-17.6) | 152.8 (+11.2) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -9.9 (-15.9) | 152.1 (+11.9) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | AUB 78 – 66 MISS |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AUB 62 – 57 MISS |
| Feb 27, 2025 | AUB 106 – 76 MISS |
| Feb 1, 2025 | AUB 92 – 82 MISS |
| Feb 3, 2024 | AUB 91 – 77 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-4 | 7-9 |
| Away | 2-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 14.5 (#35) | 6.8 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#43) | 0.68 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#37) | 0.90 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#43) | 0.502 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 34.3% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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