Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -900 MISS +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +30 | 182 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -14.0 (+16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (+30.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -15.6 (+14.4) | 154.6 (+27.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -14.0 (+16.0) | 155.1 (+26.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -14.1 (+15.9) | 155.9 (+26.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -13.1 (+16.9) | 157.4 (+24.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MISS 85 – 79 AUB |
| Jan 21, 2026 | AUB 78 – 66 MISS |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AUB 62 – 57 MISS |
| Feb 1, 2025 | AUB 92 – 82 MISS |
| Feb 3, 2024 | AUB 91 – 77 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 26.6 (#2) | 15.8 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.13 (#1) | 3.09 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.17 (#1) | 4.03 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.707 (#1) | 0.615 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 1.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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