Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MISS +210 AUB -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +10 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -7.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (+23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -3.8 (-6.2) | 143.9 (+30.1) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -4.9 (-5.1) | 144.7 (+29.3) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -5.0 (-5.0) | 143.2 (+30.8) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -5.0 (-5.0) | 146.6 (+27.4) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MISS 85 – 79 AUB |
| Jan 21, 2026 | AUB 78 – 66 MISS |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AUB 62 – 57 MISS |
| Feb 27, 2025 | AUB 106 – 76 MISS |
| Feb 3, 2024 | AUB 91 – 77 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 32-6 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 11-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 83.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 16.1 (#26) | 26.9 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#12) | 5.35 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.62 (#7) | 6.62 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#18) | 0.718 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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