Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -1200 MISS +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +5 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -11.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (-35.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -10.5 (-5.5) | 155.5 (-36.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -9.2 (-4.2) | 152.9 (-33.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -10.0 (-5.0) | 158.0 (-39.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -11.0 (-6.0) | 158.1 (-39.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MISS 85 – 79 AUB |
| Jan 21, 2026 | AUB 78 – 66 MISS |
| Feb 27, 2025 | AUB 106 – 76 MISS |
| Feb 1, 2025 | AUB 92 – 82 MISS |
| Feb 3, 2024 | AUB 91 – 77 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 26.6 (#2) | 15.1 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.78 (#1) | 3.33 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.83 (#1) | 4.19 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.687 (#1) | 0.618 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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