Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MISS +120 AUB -154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +14 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -6.9 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (+18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -3.8 (-10.2) | 145.5 (+22.5) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -3.0 (-11.0) | 146.3 (+21.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -2.9 (-11.1) | 145.1 (+22.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -2.6 (-11.4) | 148.0 (+20.0) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MISS 85 – 79 AUB |
| Jan 21, 2026 | AUB 78 – 66 MISS |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AUB 62 – 57 MISS |
| Feb 27, 2025 | AUB 106 – 76 MISS |
| Feb 1, 2025 | AUB 92 – 82 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#72) | 18.5 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#9) | 2.45 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#14) | 3.22 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#14) | 0.621 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 42.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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