Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | SMC +114 GONZ -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +11 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -4.9 (+15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -1.4 (+12.4) | 143.1 (-14.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -0.8 (+11.8) | 141.0 (-12.0) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -1.0 (+12.0) | 141.2 (-12.2) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -0.6 (+11.6) | 143.0 (-14.0) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | GONZ 73 – 65 SMC |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GONZ 58 – 51 SMC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SMC 74 – 67 GONZ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | SMC 62 – 58 GONZ |
| Mar 13, 2024 | SMC 69 – 60 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 31-4 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 16-2 |
| Home | 17-0 | 15-0 |
| Away | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 84.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 15.5 (#30) | 23.4 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#26) | 4.06 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.61 (#24) | 5.10 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#12) | 0.630 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 51.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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