Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | GONZ -500 SMC +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +8 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -13.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -11.8 (-3.8) | 144.3 (-6.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -13.1 (-5.1) | 143.8 (-5.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -12.4 (-4.4) | 145.1 (-7.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -11.8 (-3.8) | 144.8 (-6.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SMC 70 – 59 GONZ |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GONZ 58 – 51 SMC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SMC 74 – 67 GONZ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | SMC 62 – 58 GONZ |
| Mar 13, 2024 | SMC 69 – 60 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-4 | 27-6 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 16-2 |
| Home | 15-0 | 17-0 |
| Away | 8-2 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 24.2 (#4) | 13.6 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.46 (#6) | 2.56 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.85 (#6) | 3.44 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#20) | 0.632 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.7% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.79 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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