Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | SMC +150 GONZ -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +7 | 109 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -5.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-33.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -2.9 (-4.1) | 135.9 (-26.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -2.6 (-4.4) | 136.3 (-27.3) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -2.9 (-4.1) | 137.3 (-28.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -2.7 (-4.3) | 134.1 (-25.1) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SMC 70 – 59 GONZ |
| Feb 1, 2026 | GONZ 73 – 65 SMC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SMC 74 – 67 GONZ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | SMC 62 – 58 GONZ |
| Mar 13, 2024 | SMC 69 – 60 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 14-4 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 9-1 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.8 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 15.5 (#28) | 21.0 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#23) | 2.25 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.73 (#15) | 3.11 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#12) | 0.590 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 2.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 40.4% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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