Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | GONZ -280 SMC +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +7 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -8.5 (-15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -6.2 (-13.2) | 142.7 (-1.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -6.4 (-13.4) | 144.5 (-3.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -6.3 (-13.3) | 142.9 (-1.9) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -6.3 (-13.3) | 142.7 (-1.7) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SMC 70 – 59 GONZ |
| Feb 1, 2026 | GONZ 73 – 65 SMC |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GONZ 58 – 51 SMC |
| Feb 2, 2025 | SMC 62 – 58 GONZ |
| Mar 13, 2024 | SMC 69 – 60 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 17-1 |
| Home | 13-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 7-2 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 61.8 |
| Massey | 20.8 (#7) | 15.4 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#43) | 2.67 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#36) | 3.59 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#35) | 0.623 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 2.07 | 1.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 39.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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