Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | SMC +138 GONZ -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +9 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -1.3 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -0.7 (+9.7) | 135.0 (-6.0) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -0.4 (+9.4) | 134.2 (-5.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -1.3 (+10.3) | 137.6 (-8.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -1.0 (+10.0) | 135.2 (-6.2) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SMC 70 – 59 GONZ |
| Feb 1, 2026 | GONZ 73 – 65 SMC |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GONZ 58 – 51 SMC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SMC 74 – 67 GONZ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | SMC 62 – 58 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 14-2 |
| Home | 14-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 9-0 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.2 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#20) | 15.9 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#43) | 2.40 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#51) | 3.16 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#38) | 0.597 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 51.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 39.0% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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