Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | SMC +140 GONZ -165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +4 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -2.3 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-31.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -2.1 (+1.9) | 142.4 (-22.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -0.1 (+3.9) | 147.2 (-27.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -1.7 (+2.3) | 147.4 (-27.4) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -1.3 (+2.7) | 145.1 (-25.1) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SMC 70 – 59 GONZ |
| Feb 1, 2026 | GONZ 73 – 65 SMC |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GONZ 58 – 51 SMC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SMC 74 – 67 GONZ |
| Mar 13, 2024 | SMC 69 – 60 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 14-4 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 9-1 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.8 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 15.2 (#30) | 20.7 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#31) | 2.07 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.51 (#28) | 2.96 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#23) | 0.594 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 2.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 41.9% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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