Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -310 VT +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +7 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -8.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -9.0 (-2.0) | 148.6 (+22.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -10.6 (-3.6) | 152.2 (+18.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -8.3 (-1.3) | 147.1 (+23.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -8.4 (-1.4) | 147.1 (+23.9) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2025 | UNC 91 – 59 VT |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UNC 96 – 81 VT |
| Dec 4, 2022 | VT 80 – 72 UNC |
| Mar 12, 2022 | VT 72 – 59 UNC |
| Feb 19, 2022 | UNC 65 – 57 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 18-0 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 16.7 (#26) | 10.8 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#18) | 1.98 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.60 (#25) | 2.58 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#9) | 0.583 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.72 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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