Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | VT +300 UNC -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +32 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -8.1 (-23.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -6.0 (-26.0) | 149.2 (+0.8) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -7.3 (-24.7) | 150.2 (-0.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -7.1 (-24.9) | 150.7 (-0.7) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -8.1 (-23.9) | 150.0 (-0.0) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNC 89 – 82 VT |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UNC 96 – 81 VT |
| Dec 4, 2022 | VT 80 – 72 UNC |
| Mar 12, 2022 | VT 72 – 59 UNC |
| Feb 19, 2022 | UNC 65 – 57 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-7 |
| Home | 8-9 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#134) | 13.0 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#144) | 2.10 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#154) | 2.66 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#186) | 0.599 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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