Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -600 VT +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +15 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -11.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+25.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -11.5 (+3.5) | 151.6 (+25.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -10.7 (+4.3) | 150.2 (+26.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -11.0 (+4.0) | 152.9 (+24.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -10.7 (+4.3) | 152.8 (+24.2) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNC 89 – 82 VT |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UNC 91 – 59 VT |
| Dec 4, 2022 | VT 80 – 72 UNC |
| Mar 12, 2022 | VT 72 – 59 UNC |
| Feb 19, 2022 | UNC 65 – 57 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 7-5 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 17.2 (#11) | 9.1 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#11) | 1.47 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.65 (#5) | 1.91 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#13) | 0.561 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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