Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | VT +100 UNC +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +8 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | VT -0.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -2.5 (+5.5) | 150.2 (+1.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -2.3 (+5.7) | 149.6 (+2.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -2.5 (+5.5) | 149.5 (+2.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -2.8 (+5.2) | 149.2 (+2.8) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNC 89 – 82 VT |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UNC 91 – 59 VT |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UNC 96 – 81 VT |
| Mar 12, 2022 | VT 72 – 59 UNC |
| Feb 19, 2022 | UNC 65 – 57 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#68) | 10.9 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#29) | 2.01 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.14 (#35) | 3.18 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#46) | 0.640 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 32.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.8% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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