Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | VT -200 UNC +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +8 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | VT -5.1 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -5.7 (-13.7) | 142.4 (-20.4) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -5.3 (-13.3) | 136.8 (-14.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -5.8 (-13.8) | 145.1 (-23.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VT -5.4 (-13.4) | 146.0 (-24.0) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNC 89 – 82 VT |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UNC 91 – 59 VT |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UNC 96 – 81 VT |
| Dec 4, 2022 | VT 80 – 72 UNC |
| Mar 12, 2022 | VT 72 – 59 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 29-10 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#30) | 9.7 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#79) | 1.82 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#66) | 2.21 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#70) | 0.589 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 78.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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