Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
| Money | UNC -150 VT +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +13 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | VT -0.2 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (-10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -0.3 (-12.7) | 139.2 (-8.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -0.6 (-12.4) | 138.6 (-7.6) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -0.4 (-13.4) | 143.3 (-12.3) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -0.2 (-13.2) | 142.1 (-11.1) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNC 89 – 82 VT |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UNC 91 – 59 VT |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UNC 96 – 81 VT |
| Dec 4, 2022 | VT 80 – 72 UNC |
| Feb 19, 2022 | UNC 65 – 57 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-10 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-3 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#32) | 11.7 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#32) | 1.50 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#34) | 1.90 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#23) | 0.557 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 79.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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