Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
UCF Knights
86 87
FINAL Conference
Baylor Bears
Big 12 Conference · Addition Financial Arena · March 1, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread UCF -1.5 Away covered
O/U 159.5 Over
Money UCF -125 / BAY +105
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCF win
Actual BAY +1 173 Lost
Massey UCF -2.3 (-3.3)
Massey Totals 166.0 (+7.0)
Bradley-Terry 87%
Weighted B-T 87%
Efficiency Plus ML UCF -2.4 (-3.4) 158.0 (+15.0) 67%
Baseline Tuned ML UCF -4.5 (-5.5) 158.7 (+14.3) 72%
Baseline ML UCF -4.6 (-5.6) 160.9 (+12.1) 73%
Baseline Plus ML UCF -4.7 (-5.7) 161.1 (+11.9) 72%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 8, 2025 BAY 9176 UCF
Feb 1, 2024 BAY 7769 UCF

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCF BAY
Overall 21-12 17-17
Conference 9-9 6-12
Home 14-5 11-6
Away 5-5 3-7
Neutral 2-2 3-4
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 80.7 80.4
Avg Pts Against 78.4 76.9
Massey 11.4 (#49) 12.1 (#45)
Bradley-Terry 2.92 (#23) 1.53 (#67)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.53 (#26) 2.18 (#62)
RPI 0.610 (#26) 0.530 (#111)
Shooting & Four Factors UCF BAY
FG% 47.7% 46.8%
3PT% 38.3% 34.7%
REB / G 36.9 36.7
OREB / G 12.1 12.6
AST / TO 1.41 1.28
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.4% 53.7%
TOV% 16.3% 16.6%
ORB% 34.9% 36.6%
FT Rate 22.3% 26.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.5% 51.5%
Opp TOV% 16.1% 15.9%
DRB% 72.2% 67.8%
Opp FT Rate 24.8% 22.7%

Game Analysis

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