Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -650 UCF +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +15 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -12.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -11.0 (+4.0) | 160.2 (+6.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -11.2 (+3.8) | 161.0 (+6.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -11.2 (+3.8) | 158.5 (+8.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -11.4 (+3.6) | 161.1 (+5.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | BAY 87 – 86 UCF |
| Feb 1, 2024 | BAY 77 – 69 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 80.4 |
| Massey | 16.9 (#24) | 7.9 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#41) | 1.73 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#40) | 2.08 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#35) | 0.572 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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