Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 169.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -455 ARK +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +34 | 188 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -7.2 (+26.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.4 (+20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -7.9 (+26.1) | 165.0 (+23.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -8.8 (+25.2) | 165.4 (+22.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -7.3 (+26.7) | 167.8 (+20.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -6.8 (+27.2) | 165.3 (+22.7) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2025 | FLA 71 – 63 ARK |
| Jan 13, 2024 | FLA 90 – 68 ARK |
| Feb 18, 2023 | ARK 84 – 65 FLA |
| Feb 23, 2022 | ARK 82 – 74 FLA |
| Feb 17, 2021 | ARK 75 – 64 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-1 | 17-1 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 90.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 81.0 |
| Massey | 24.2 (#4) | 20.1 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.55 (#13) | 3.09 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.84 (#7) | 4.00 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#10) | 0.631 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 50.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 45.2 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 15.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 12.3% |
| ORB% | 42.4% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.