Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | ARK +155 FLA -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +8 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -4.2 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (-17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -4.7 (-3.3) | 148.8 (-14.8) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -2.0 (-6.0) | 145.0 (-11.0) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -2.2 (-5.8) | 146.8 (-12.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -2.1 (-5.9) | 148.7 (-14.7) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | FLA 111 – 77 ARK |
| Jan 13, 2024 | FLA 90 – 68 ARK |
| Feb 18, 2023 | ARK 84 – 65 FLA |
| Feb 23, 2022 | ARK 82 – 74 FLA |
| Feb 17, 2021 | ARK 75 – 64 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 36-4 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-4 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 14-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W12 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 84.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#39) | 21.6 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#53) | 4.22 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#52) | 5.58 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#81) | 0.644 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 45.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 41.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 42.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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